7S (2019-2021): Dense Westland Arrays Researching Fault Segmentation: What controls earthquake segmentation along New Zealand's Alpine Fault?

• GNS Science (IGNS), New Zealand

Predicting where an earthquake rupture will stop, and thus the earthquake’s eventual size, is very difficult. Recent high-resolution records of past large earthquakes on New Zealand’s Alpine Fault reveal that some localities often, but not always, act as barriers to rupture. Given the Alpine Fault is late in its seismic cycle of large earthquakes, now is an opportune time to improve our understanding of why these locations are so influential in controlling the extent of rupture. To do this, we will acquire and analyse seismic recordings of small earthquakes occurring close to two of the most persistent rupture barriers. The locations and physical properties of these small earthquakes will allow us to construct a high-resolution image of the geometry and mechanical state of these complex rupture barrier regions. These fault images will be used to inform sophisticated computational models, which simulate earthquake rupture scenarios along the Alpine Fault. We will use these models to test combinations of physical properties that enable these pivotal parts of the fault to act as either conduits or barriers to rupture during different earthquakes.

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